WEC NL – About Black Swans and Green Futures
Understanding the energy transition after COVID-19.
The study “About Black Swans and Green Futures”, published by the World Energy Council Netherlands (WEC NL), analyzes how the dramatic events of 2020—most prominently COVID-19—are impacting the energy transition in Northwest Europe. The study examines whether these developments have accelerated or delayed the feasibility of the 2050 climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement.
Key insights
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Energy transition in two scenarios
- Modest Growth – Modest RES: Limited economic growth (1,5% per year) and a steady, but not accelerated, energy transition.
- High Growth – High RES: Accelerated growth (2% per year), increased investments in renewable energy, hydrogen and CO₂ storage.
Structural changes in energy use
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- Digitalization, working from home and changing mobility patterns have a lasting impact on energy consumption and emissions.
- The pandemic temporarily led to lower CO₂ emissions, but structural policy measures are needed for lasting reduction.
Faster policy and investment measures
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- The program Next Generation EU Recovery Fund (€672,5 billion) stimulates the greening of the economy.
- Growth of offshore wind and hydrogen requires investments in infrastructure, such as pipelines and CCUS projects.
- De EU Taxonomy attracts investments in sustainable energy projects.
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