The Dutch hydrogen economy in 2050
Purpose of the study
In this study, we investigate the potential socio-economic impact of a Dutch energy transition to hydrogen by 2050. This is done using three future scenarios that vary in ambition and strategy.
- The situation where the Netherlands achieves its climate goals but does not implement a more active hydrogen strategy within the energy transition
- The situation where the Netherlands invests in a green hydrogen economy with a high degree of self-sufficiency in both consumption and production
- The scenario in which the Netherlands explicitly opts for an open hydrogen economy in which a significant portion of the hydrogen is imported.
Key insights
Although there are still many uncertainties between now and 2050 in technological and socio-economic developments that could influence the results, the research results show that:
- Hydrogen will play a significantly larger role in our energy system than it does now.
- The energy system of the future, including hydrogen, will be more labor-intensive and can therefore positively impact employment (for hydrogen alone, it has been calculated that the number of jobs could increase by 50.000 to 100.000 jobs, varying per scenario).
- The costs of the entire energy system will rise, both with and without a hydrogen economy.
The extent to which these costs and the number of jobs will increase depends on the choices made in all sectors: increasing or decreasing electrification, continuing to use existing (gas) infrastructure, and the expected limitations regarding financing and the future availability of adequately trained personnel. In this regard, the use of hydrogen in the Dutch energy system offers economies of scale, economics, social, and technological advantages compared to other energy options and compared to other countries.
